Summary:
- Nationwide casino foot traffic in July fell 9.9% from 2024, marking the second weakest month of the year.
- The temporary setback could soon disappear as spending per visitor is going up and new properties are opening.
- Colorado posted strong gains while Detroit, Atlantic City, and Massachusetts lagged.
US Casino foot traffic stumbled in July, August 12 investor note from Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz, signaling the second-worst month of the year for operators, just ahead of February’s 14.3% drop.
The number of people who chose to visit brick-and-mortar gambling venues went down 9.9% from last year and nearly 20% lower than the same month in 2019.
Temporary Hiccup Fought Off by Increased Spending
Katz explained the decline slightly interrupted the “stabilizing trends” that began to trigger gradual improvement earlier this year, while adding that the numbers could be more of a blip than a new downward pattern.
One bright spot, however, was the fact that spending per visitor numbers went up, with Katz noting that the July calendar lined up almost exactly with 2024’s, except for the Fourth of July landing on a Friday this year rather than a Thursday.
Several casino executives told the analyst that July business has been “OK” for them, leading him to believe the slump would not hold.
We anticipate trends will continue to stabilize in 2025, as comparisons have started to ease vs. prior-year levels
One possible reason for the growth is the increasing number of property opening events, with Penn Entertainment’s debut of the new Hollywood Joliet on August 11 on top of the list, followed by Churchill Downs’s opening of The Rose Gaming Resort in Virginia.
Our take is that the monthly performance reflects the volatile path toward the normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, as well as the heightened competition and renovations in specific locations
Mixed Regional Numbers
In terms of regions, July’s results were mixed. While Ohio’s traffic slipped just 1.5% from last year and 0.4% from 2019, Pennsylvania went down 0.6% year-over-year but up 14.2% from pre-pandemic.
Atlantic City fell 4.9% from last year and 13.2% from 2019, while Illinois did better, only dropping 0.9% year-over-year, but still going down 14.4% from pre-COVID.
Meantime, Massachusetts marked a 2% dip from 2024 and still remained 25.9% behind 2019, a figure that was possibly affected by New Hampshire casino’s “increased competition”
In Kentucky, new casino openings made 2019 comparisons irrelevant, but traffic was 1.3% lower than last year. Black Hawk, Colorado, bucked the trend with a 9% gain, fueled by Monarch’s new property, “which continues to ramp and take share”
Katz believes regional gaming is still better positioned for near-term growth than Las Vegas, where Strip expectations remain muted until late 2025. He sees upside for Penn in the Midwest, potential for Caesars “to benefit from the expected uptrend” if execution improves, and is watching closely to see how Churchill Downs’ new properties perform.
About the Author
